The overwhelming success of the iPod is adequate proof that consumers want to "carry" their choice of music. And although cellphones with built-in FM recievers have been popular for some time, it is the launch of iPod based cellphones (starting with the recent "RokR" launched by Motorola), that is a signal to the mobile industry. It is also worth noting that in Korea (a.k.a. "Land of Advanced Mobile Phones"), mobile operators already offer mobile music service.

All this points to the emerging mobile medium - comparable to cable TV, which started as a content distribution channel, but is expected to evolve into a completely new (digital) medium. Other related developments like mobile television and I.P. television along with standards like UMA & VOWLAN hold the promise of convergence - which will create a mobile medium in the near future.

Market Dynamics
Voice is still the bread-winner of mobile operators. But there are indications that revenues from voice are / will be under pressure. (Due to slow growth rates of new subscriptions, lower tariffs and lower ARPU - average revenue per user). While growth rate problems may still not be applicable for developing regions (like India & China), it's a matter of time before they "catch up".

Technology combined with dynamic market forces is responsible for introducing rapid changes in the mobile market. The value chain has expanded from mere voice / data to content. And the advent of the mobile medium may restrict the role of mobile operators to data transportation.

Fixed-line telecom business model is migrating from voice-based revenue to broadband services & further to multimedia services. Since cellphones have essentially muscled into the voice revenue of fixed lines, are they too destined to the same fate?

Alternate Technologies
Wireless IP technology like WLAN (the "descendant" of WiFi) is an opportunity for telecom operators, offering as it does mobile phone services at lower set-up & operating costs. However, this technology is also a threat to existing operators (who have deployed more expensive technology like GSM & CDMA) - simply because they make it easy for ISPs & fixed-line telecom cos. to offer mobile solutions as well as hybrid combinations.

In fact, today's IP based technology makes it easy even for players other than fixed-line operators to enter this field! Witness Google, Yahoo!, AOL, MSN & even eBay all offering voice based chat services using VOIP. Pocket PCs (some call them cellphones) with the required software are able to communicate with these portals via the mobile infrastructure.

With their obvious benefits, there is a possibility that some cellphone operators may themselves adopt the new technologies.

There are 2 standards that are broadly expected to drive future wireless business :
• "Unlicensed Mobile Access" (UMA) standard based Cellular Convergent service - for the residential    segment
• "Voice Over WLAN" (VOWLAN) standard based wireless connectivity - for the    enterprise customer    segment

Content is King
As always, in the beginning the communication medium was everything. As the cellphone industry evolved, saturation levels were approached & growth rate slowed. And in their bid to boost growth rates, operated shifted the focus to revenue from content.

Soon content aggregators & portals started sharing this "new" revenue with the operators.

Awhile later, content owners & content creators started realizing the importance of their content. And even more, the power of their brands.

The next natural step was to demand the "lion's share" of the content revenue, marginalizing the cellphone operators and making the aggregators almost redundant.

What Next?
The cellphone industry value chain comprises of mega brand owners, aggregators, small content providers, portal owners & cellphone operators. Obviously, the key lies in identifying content types that are likely generate maximum revenue. For example, ringtone sales generate billions of dollars annually. (And mobile online gaming is already a challenger !)

Trans-national corporations are starting to realize that they can leverage their own brands & deploy wireless / Internet technology to interact with their customer base directly & simply - by delivering content into their customers' devices. Disney for example, may soon challenge cellphone operators by leveraging its huge consumer loyalty. Sony has already made its moves to enter the mobile 'branded content' space.

The next 5 years are likely to see a complete transition from what started as a mobile voice service to what may be called the era of the mobile medium.

In the transformation process, cellphone operators who started with voice services, then introduced value-added services based on content (on a sharing basis with the aggregator/content owner), may finally end up sharing their carriage revenues with branded content owners !

It now remains to be seen how many cellphone operators start developing / acquiring content to avoid being marginalized.